Ahead of today’s vote, Wisconsinites already cast 644,800 absentee ballots in the spring election as interest in early voting surged compared to two years ago, particularly in GOP areas, new numbers show.
But liberal Dane and Milwaukee counties so far have accounted for a bigger share of the early vote in the spring race than they did in November, which featured a 50-50 electorate.
Two years ago, liberal Janet Protasiewicz won an open seat on the Supreme Court by 11 points as more than 1.8 million voters turned out that spring. Since then, the state GOP has emphasized early voting, trying to bank more Republican votes ahead of election day.
In comparing the early vote to the 2023 spring election, the biggest boosts are in GOP areas. Lincoln County has nearly doubled the number of absentee ballots returned as of today’s update compared to the day before the election two years ago. Polk County is up 82.7% compared to two years ago, while St. Croix County is up 82.1%. Pierce and Florence counties are up nearly 80%, and Walworth County is up nearly 78.2%.
>> WisPolitics is now on the State Affairs network. Get custom keyword notifications, bill tracking and all WisPolitics content. Get the app or access via desktop.
All six went heavily for Donald Trump in the November election, and clerks in those counties have reported a combined 27,269 absentee ballots returned as of this morning’s update from the Elections Commission That accounts for 4.2% of the overall total of 644,800 returned absentee ballots. The day before the November election, those six counties accounted for almost 5% of the absentee ballots that had been returned.
As the early vote numbers have come in over the past two weeks, insiders have noted conservative Brad Schimel is trying to create an electorate that looks more like the one that showed up at the polls in November and carried Trump to a 29,397-vote win than the one in April 2023 that produced a 203,431-vote victory for Protasiewicz.
That’s why WisPolitics is also comparing the share of the early vote so far this spring to the November election.
On that front, it’s a mixed bag so far for Schimel in three key areas of the state.
In looking at the early vote from November, deep blue Dane and Milwaukee counties combined to account for 28.5% of the absentee ballots that had been reported on the day before the election. As of today, they have combined for 205,478 absentee ballots returned. That’s 31.9% of the overall number.
Washington County has had the highest increase in early voting compared to two years ago, more than doubling the number of absentee ballots returned so far.
When grouped with Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, the WOW counties accounted for 17% of the absentee ballots returned as of the day before the November election. As of this morning, the three had accounted for 122,827 absentee ballots returned, or 19% of the total.
And Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties accounted for 11.45% of the absentee ballots that had been returned the day before the November election. As of this morning, the three had combined for 67,566, or 10.5%.
Trump won all six “WOW” and “BOW” counties last fall.
Wisconsin doesn’t track voters by partisan affiliation, placing some limits on the value of looking at the early vote. The data from the Elections Commission also doesn’t note whether those casting absentee ballots are regular spring voters.
Insiders have noted a key for Schimel is to turn out Trump supporters who typically only vote in November elections.
