Marquette University: New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds split opinion on whether Republicans in Congress can unite behind new Speaker McCarthy

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 53% of those polled say they heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker of the House of Representatives, while 29% say they heard a little and 18% heard nothing at all.

Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to say they had heard a lot about the election of the new speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, while independents were about half as likely to have heard a lot, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: The election of a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?)

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	53	29	18
Republican	56	29	15
Independent	28	35	37
Democrat	60	26	14

This Marquette Law School Poll was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Among all respondents, 41% say they think the Republicans in the House can unite to govern effectively after the prolonged voting for speaker, while 58% believe Republicans cannot unite. Republicans are much more positive about the prospect for party unity than are independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Do you think the Republicans in the House of Representatives can unite to govern effectively, or were the divisions over the election of a Speaker of the House an indication that they cannot unite to govern effectively?

Party ID	Can unite	Cannot unite	Skipped/Ref
Total	41	58	0
Republican	67	33	0
Independent	32	66	2
Democrat	20	80	0

McCarthy is not yet well known to many Americans, with 39% saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion of him. He is viewed favorably by 19% and unfavorably by 42%. Republicans are much more favorable to McCarthy than are independents or Democrats, but it is notable that fewer Democrats lack an opinion of McCarthy than do Republicans, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Kevin McCarthy: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	19	42	39
Republican	38	20	43
Independent	5	31	61
Democrat	6	67	27

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is better known than McCarthy, with only 12% saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion of Pelosi. She is seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 57%. There are sharp partisan differences in views of Pelosi, as shown in Table 4. While the difference is small, Republicans are slightly more likely to have an opinion of Pelosi than are Democrats.

Table 4: Nancy Pelosi: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	31	57	12
Republican	3	92	5
Independent	21	44	33
Democrat	61	30	9

With a divided Congress, we find that approval of the Republican House majority and Democratic Senate majority is virtually identical, but partisan differences are quite large. Forty-two percent approve of how the House Republican majority is handling its job, while 43% approve of how the Senate Democratic majority is doing its. Table 5 shows approval of the House and Senate majorities by party identification.

Table 5: Approval of House and Senate majority party performance

(a) Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is handling its job?

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Total	42	57
Republican	71	28
Independent	30	64
Democrat	19	81

(b) Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate is handling its job?

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Total	43	56
Republican	8	92
Independent	31	64
Democrat	80	20

Ukraine

Thirty-two percent say they have heard or read a lot about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Dec. 21, while 43% have heard a little and 25% have heard nothing at all. Democrats were slightly more likely to have heard a lot than Republicans, while independents were much less likely to have heard much, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID		A lot		A little		Nothing at all
Total		32		43		25
Republican		31		46		24
Independent		18		40		42
Democrat		38		43		20

Awareness of news about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is much higher, with 69% having heard a lot about this, 26% a little, and 4% nothing at all. There is little difference in awareness of the Russian invasion between Democrats and Republicans, although independents are considerably less attentive to this topic, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID		A lot		A little		Nothing at all
Total		69		26		4
Republican		73		24		2
Independent		49		37		14
Democrat		74		24		2

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as an issue with a partisan divide in recent months. In January, 29% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 46% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. These opinions are only slightly changed from November, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Poll dates		Too much support		Not enough support		About the right amount of support
11/15-22/22		32		23		45
1/9-20/23		29		24		46

Table 9 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the January poll. Just under half of Republicans, 47%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 25% of independents and 14% of Democrats agree.

Table 9: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Party ID		Too much support		Not enough support		About the right amount of support
Total		29		24		46
Republican		47		15		38
Independent		25		33		39
Democrat		14		29		57

A majority of respondents say that what happens in the Ukraine conflict matters a great deal or some to life in the U.S., while about a quarter say it matters not much or not at all, as shown in Table 10. There are modest partisan differences on this question, but large majorities of all partisan camps say that it matters either a great deal or some to the U.S.

Table 10: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States?

Party ID		A great deal		Some		Not much		Not at all
Total		31		47		16		7
Republican		24		49		18		9
Independent		29		46		17